Investing In Prospects Is Dicey

Quick note: nothing I say should be taken as investing advice. I am not a card investor, nor am I an expert in it.

On Saturday Chris Sewall posted a great video that you should watch:

I don’t want to spoil it, but he had three cohorts of cards and their values that he tracked for about 10 months:

• Hall of Famers

• Established superstar current players

• Prospects

It was a small sample size, but the results ended up where I expected them to.

I have people commenting on my videos sometimes telling me about the prospects that they’re “investing” in. If you like the prospects and you like their cards, that’s great. But buying prospects and hoping the cards go up in value over time is an uphill battle. Most top prospects are valued at their peak before the athlete even approaches their career peak.

My strategy is to wait until they’ve become a surefire or near-surefire Hall of Famer before buying their cards. At that point, their prices have plummeted and they’re affordable, plus the chance of a downside is less.

I know a lot of people who buy prospects and flip them for a quick profit. Or they wait for the prospect to get called up, if they’re baseball players. These seem safer, but also not something that’s in my wheelhouse.

A strategy I’ve considered but have never executed so can’t recommend: buying post-hype busts that you believe in. Think about a guy who was highly-touted, had high card prices, but never delivered so his card prices plummeted. Maybe he’s still only 22 years old and can turn into the player he was expected to be.

Coby White comes to mind. You could buy his PSA 10 rookie cards for dirt cheap when he was just 22 years old.

Actually, his cards are still dirt cheap, even after he broke out. Because the card market forgets players once their time as prospects end.

And there’s the lesson: be very careful when “investing” in prospects.

Yes, It’s Another COMC Sale!

I did this back in January and it worked, so I’m doing another 40% off sale on my COMC cards.

Go and buy!

I Was Interviewed In Another Newsletter

Check out Marc’s Drawn to Cards newsletter for an interview he did with me, and make sure you subscribe!

🎬 Channel Highlights From the Past Week

Here’s a fun one. Remember this video?

My buddy Jim pointed out that the buyer of that card is on Instagram and is a Javy Lopez supercollector:

Also, on Sunday I briefly covered a man arrested for card fraud and said that his mugshot was “nightmare fuel”:

That led to this comment:

This guy is defending the mugshot of a guy who is alleged to have conned people out of tens of thousands of dollars, maybe more. Maybe we found the alleged criminal’s YouTube account?

On a side note, I appreciate anyone coming to my defense in comments, but it’s really not necessary. I’m not offended by first-time commenters calling me ugly.

🎁 My Pickup Of The Week

I won an auction from an auction house! A nice low-pop Yaz for my PC:

👻 Brief Horror Movie Review of the Week

Infinity Pool sucked. How’s that for brief?

I also watched Final Destination 2 with my 15-year-old. Obviously not as good as the original, but it was still fun. 3 out of 5 stars.

🔗 Links:

The Defining Baseball Card For Each Generation

Why a 12-year-old was once sued over a $12 Nolan Ryan rookie card

The Instagram of the guy who won 1,000 packs from Topps

That’s Too Many Baseball Cards!

Ball from final out of '86 World Series hits auction block

Gotta trade 'em all: Pokémon cards see resurgence in popularity

On this date in sports history: Babe Ruth makes his first appearance as a professional baseball player, pitching a 6-hit shutout for the Baltimore Orioles of the International League. Ruth would go on to have a decent career as a pitcher, and I’ve heard that he hit a bit too.